Oscar Night

In roughly four hours, millions of people will watch hundreds of celebrities pile into an extravagant building in Hollywood (in clothing worth more than most viewers’ children) to hand out and receive awards that really don’t mean that much.  We’ll sit through numerous lengthy tribute montages, awkwardly read presenter jokes, and acceptance speeches that sound like they’re coming from someone who just cured cancer.

All hail the Acadamy Awards!

I hate award shows.  I hate how much we’re supposed to worship celebrities.  I hate the patting of one’s own back that goes on there.  I hate the pre-show.  I hate the Oscars!

There are two things I do like, though…

1) The comedy.  John Stewart did a great job last year.  The bits were funny.  Particularly the homosexuality in film history piece.  Very good.

2) Predicting the winners.  No matter how arrogant the event may be, I love predicting the winners.  It is the main reason I watch anymore.  For whatever reason, I really enjoy trying to anticipate what the voters are thinking.  In that sense, the event is a sporting event. 

That I like.

Here are my predictions for the 2007 Academy Awards.  I will be giving a) my prediction for what will win and b) what I would have voted for.  And I will only be picking the major awards. 

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Nominees: Borat, The Departed, Little Children, Children Of Men, Notes On A Scandal

Who will win: Borat 

Bold prediction, I know.  But I have a feeling Hollywood really wants to give Borat an award.

My vote: The Departed

I loved Children Of Men, and am sad to see it only nominated for one of the majors, but The Departed is such a near flawless piece of writing that I couldn’t justify voting for anything else.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Nominees: Little Miss Sunshine, Letters From Iwo Jima, The Queen, Babel, Pan’s Labyrinth

Who will win: Little Miss Sunshine

This pick may also seem bold, but original screenplay is usually where smaller, more independent movies are rewarded.  Particularly those also nominated for best picture but have no chance of winning.  The underdogs usually get thrown a bone in this category.  Remember Matt and Ben in 1998?  Exactly.

My vote: Litte Miss Sunshine

It is one of the best picture nominees that may end up in my all time top 10.  It deserves it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Adrianna Barrazza (Babel), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), Cate Blanchett (Notes On A Scandal), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Rinko Kikuchi (Babel) 

Who will win: Jennifer Hudson

Dreamgirls will win ALL of the music awards and this one.  Since Hudson was such a surprise powerhouse in this film, the Academy will give her the nod.  Plus, Hollywood secretly wants to see the return domination of musical movies.  They have an agenda here.

My vote: Abigail Breslin

First of all, she’s brilliant in this movie.  She’s moving emotionally without being too overly cutesy.  She does something that in my opinion is mind boggling for a kid her age: nuance.  How subtle can a kid be?  I was eating Oreos and avoiding showers when I was her age!  I would also like to see her win because the Academy always tempts us with an interesting youngster nominee (like Haley Joel Osment) without ever giving them the award (not since Tatem O’Neal anyway).  I say give the kid the statue!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

The nominees: Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls), Mark Whalberg (The Departed), Dijmon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)

Who will win: Mark Whalberg

Why do all of the truly interesting performances always end up in this category?  This is my favorite award because it’s the most unpredictable and my favorite performers are usually nominated.  Whalberg was superb.  Absolutely original and on the money every time he appeared on screen.  But so was Arkin!  Ahhhh!  So hard to pick this one, but I think Marky Mark will get the nod.

My vote: Jackie Earle Haley

I really did think that Arkin and Marky Mark were better, but how great would it be if the kid who played Kelly Leak in the original Bad News Bears won an Oscar?!  Answer: truly great.  Seriously, he does a wonderful job in this role.  But so does Whalberg.  And Arkin.  So hard to choose!  Best category, hands down.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

The nominees: Kate Winslett (Little Children), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes On A Scandal), Helen Mirren (The Queen)

Who will win: Helen Mirren

This is almost a lock.  Although Streep may sneak in there for the win.  The best performance in one of the best movies of the year, Mirren deserves it and will probably get it.

My vote: Helen Mirren

The little things in her demeanor, expressions, and voice suck you into engrossing story of The Queen.  Without a strong performance in the character, the movie bombs.  Helen Mirren blasts it out of the park.  As much as I love Kate Winslett, and loved her in Little Children, Helen Mirren transcends expectation.  And for that alone, she should win.

Best Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role

The nominees: Leonardo Di Caprio (Blood Diamond), Will Smith (The Pursuit Of Happyness), Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Peter O’Toole (Venus)

Who will win: Forest Whitaker

This is horrifyingly difficult to predict.  Horrifyingly.  First, why didn’t Leo get nominated for The Departed?  And has he become a man’s man lately or what?!  Second, there is a very good chance Peter O’Toole will win this.  Sure, he’s a great actor, but he’s also really old.  He’s one of the last icons of the “golden age” of movies alive and still working.  The Academy loves rewarding those guys.  But I don’t think they can ignore the power of Forest Whitaker.  He’s incredible in this movie.  He should win.  Hollywood can finally pay him back for not nominating him for his role in Fast Times At Ridgemont High.  Too late, I say!

My vote: Forest Whitaker

See above paragraph…

Best Achievement in Directing

The nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Departed), Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima), Paul Greengrass (United 93), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel), Stephen Frears (The Queen)

Who will win: Clint Eastwood

This is also extremely hard to predict.  Eastwood won this award two years ago, which could prevent him from winning this year.  Scorsese has never one, thus upping his chances.  Hollywood seems to love Inarritu (too much, if you ask me) and could easily give it to him.  It’s very much up in the air, but my gut says Eastwood could get it.  Chances of me being wrong on this one: 90%.  Should be interesting.

My vote: Paul Greengrass

United 93 is the movie that, when they heard abou it’s release, most people thought “A movie about that?  It’s too soon, it’s just too soon.”  Well, it might have been too soon.  But the movie is great.  And it’s great because of Greengrass.  He used non-famous actors who looked like real people to depict a very real event in human history.  The movie is a very in your face realistic representation of that day that effectively conveys the horror of the passengers on United 93 and the confusion of the traffic controllers on the ground (the most powerful aspect of the film).  He deserves to be recognized for properly memorializing this moment in time we will never stop thinking about in our real lives.  Mark my words.  Five or six years from now, United 93 will be one of the most appreciated movies in the cinematic hearts of nearly all of America.  And don’t get me wrong, there is a chance the Academy will give him the nod tonight.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The nominees: The Queen, Letters From Iwo Jima, The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, Babel

Who will win: Letters From Iwo Jima

I’ve been staring at the nominees for the past five minutes, trying desperately to get a feeling of who will win this one.  It’s tough to figure out what the voters will decide on.  They seem to love Babel, but will that really win?  The Queen has a very good chance, but may be too out there for voters.  Little Miss Sunshine has no shot (although it should).  I’m leaning slightly toward Letters From Iwo Jima.  It’s the best war movie since Platoon, and definietly one of the most original.  The courage it took to make a movie depicting an event that has become a center of American patriotism from the persective of America’s enemies is remarkable.  Rarely do you see a war movie that accurately paints the vague, grey area concept of war.  This is one of those movies, and if it does win it deserves it.  But…who knows?!  Hollywood does love  Babel!

My vote: The Departed

This is the most enthralling gangster movie I have ever seen.  And I have said this in the past about The Godfather, Goodfellas, Casino, and The Sopranos (I know, not a movie, but it still counts).  Scorsese keeps re-inventing the genre in such inventive ways.  The way he orchestrates camera motions, bad ass performances, music, and mood in his violent epics is absolutely breath taking.  Nicholson, Damon, Whalberg, Baldwin, and Di Caprio are at their career best.  The dialogue shoots back and forth like one of those jaw dropping ping pong championship matches where those Asian guys hit the ball at about 1000 mph.  This film is truly amazing and is the best of 2006.  Little Miss Sunshine is a very close second, but doesn’t quite add up.   

There you go.  Those are my predictions.  We’ll see what happens…